MONTREAL- In the initial quarter of 2024, ICAO predicts that passenger air traffic volumes will exhibit an approximately 2% increase compared to 2019, indicating a sustained level of operating profitability for airlines akin to that observed in 2023.
ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano emphasized the significance of ICAO Member States aligning their pandemic responses with the guidance formulated by the ICAO Council, which has played a pivotal role in revitalizing air services. He stressed that implementing ICAO’s post-pandemic guidance is now of utmost importance for ensuring the resilience and sustainability of the ongoing recovery.
Air Traffic Surpassed Pre-Pandemic Levels
Projections for the current year anticipate a demand approximately 3% higher than 2019 levels, with the potential to escalate to 4% if the recovery momentum intensifies in routes yet to achieve pre-pandemic levels. This translates to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of around 0.5% over the period spanning from 2019 to 2024.
The forecast for global demand, measured in Freight Tonne-Kilometres (FTK), anticipates a decrease of approximately 2% below 2019 levels for the entire year of 2024. This reduction is primarily attributed to expected declines in demand driven by the overall economic fragility on a global scale.
ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar highlighted the role of the aspirational goals established by governments for the decarbonization of air transport by 2050 in supporting the environmental sustainability of the ongoing recovery and future expansion of the global air transport network. He emphasized that ICAO-led initiatives actively accelerate the development and implementing of technologies, operational enhancements, and cleaner aviation energies necessary for decarbonization.
Salazar underscored the importance of intensifying sustainability efforts, particularly in ensuring the production and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels in ample quantities.
The provided forecasts state that risks impacting international air transport should not escalate beyond current levels.
ICAO’s latest analysis also offers insights into aviation for the preceding year, 2023, revealing that air traffic on most routes had already reached or surpassed pre-pandemic levels by the year’s end. This aligns with ICAO’s earlier prediction of an almost complete recovery of passenger air traffic, reaching around 95% of 2019 pre-pandemic levels globally by the conclusion of 2023.
Which Routes Have Seen Recovery?
By the conclusion of 2023, the major regional routes that surpassed 2019 levels include:
- Intra-Europe
- Europe to/from North America, the Middle East, South West Asia, and Africa
- North America to/from Latin America and the Caribbean, South West Asia, South East Asia, and the Pacific
- Middle East to/from South West Asia and Africa
However, most international Asian routes, excluding those serving South West Asia, still exhibit significantly lower traffic levels in 2023 than pre-pandemic ones.
The estimated cargo traffic, measured as Freight Tonne-Kilometres (FTK), for 2023 is approximately 3% below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019, reflecting the state of the world economy.
Despite challenges such as high fuel prices and economic uncertainties, airlines’ total operating profits for 2023 are projected to reach USD 39 billion, aligning with the levels observed in 2019. This profitability is primarily attributed to increased passenger yields and productivity gains achieved by the industry.
Consistent with previous years, North American and European airlines continue to dominate most of the industry’s profits.
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