WASHINGTON- The United States alleges China conducted covert yield-producing nuclear tests despite its stated moratorium, intensifying global arms control concerns.
The claim emerges as the New START treaty expires, raising uncertainty over future nuclear limits and increasing pressure for new agreements involving China.
US Allegations Raise Fresh Nuclear Testing Concerns
U.S. officials state that China secretly carried out at least one nuclear explosive test in recent years while attempting to conceal the activity. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno announced in Geneva that U.S. intelligence assessed preparations for tests producing yields in the hundreds of tons.
According to DiNanno, China allegedly used techniques designed to reduce seismic detection signals, making nuclear activity harder to identify. One such event is claimed to have occurred on June 22, 2020.
China maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing and signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, or CTBT, but has never ratified it. The United States also signed but has not ratified the treaty. Both countries permit sub-critical tests that do not trigger a full nuclear chain reaction, TWZ reported.
China’s last officially acknowledged full nuclear test took place in 1996. The United States last conducted a yield-producing nuclear test in 1992.
Monitoring Limits and Verification Challenges
Global monitoring of nuclear tests relies heavily on seismic sensors operated through the CTBT’s International Monitoring System. The network can detect explosions roughly equivalent to 500 tons of TNT or higher.
Following the U.S. allegation, CTBT Organization Executive Secretary Robert Floyd stated that the monitoring system detected no nuclear explosion matching those characteristics on the alleged test date. Detailed follow-up analysis also did not change that assessment.
He noted that mechanisms to investigate smaller explosions formally cannot be activated until the CTBT fully enters into force.
China Rejects Allegations
Chinese officials rejected the U.S. claims, calling them misleading and politically motivated. China reiterated its commitment to its nuclear testing moratorium and accused Washington of escalating nuclear competition.
Beijing has consistently opposed joining new arms control negotiations that would limit its nuclear arsenal, arguing its stockpile remains significantly smaller than those of the United States and Russia.
Nuclear Expansion and Strategic Balance
Despite denying testing claims, China continues the rapid expansion of its nuclear forces. U.S. assessments estimate China currently possesses about 600 nuclear warheads and could reach 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.
By comparison, both the United States and Russia are assessed to hold roughly 4,000 warheads each, although trends show the U.S. stockpile is gradually declining while Russia’s numbers remain steady or slightly increasing.
China’s modernization includes the construction of new intercontinental ballistic missile silo fields, deployment of advanced missile systems, and the development of hypersonic delivery capabilities.
New START Expiration Adds Pressure
The expiration of the New START treaty removes the last remaining legally binding limits on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces. U.S. officials argue that future agreements must include China due to its expanding capabilities.
Washington and Moscow may seek interim arrangements to maintain some limits, but no formal successor treaty is in place.
Former President Donald Trump previously indicated the United States should consider testing if competitors continue doing so, though officials have not confirmed plans to resume yield-producing tests.
Future Arms Control Uncertainty
The allegations add urgency to calls for updated nuclear arms control frameworks, yet negotiations remain difficult. China continues to resist participation, while U.S. and Russian relations remain strained.
Experts warn that without new agreements, global nuclear competition could intensify, increasing geopolitical risk and weakening long-standing nonproliferation efforts.
Further evidence or clarification regarding the U.S. claims may emerge as diplomatic discussions continue.
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