ASIA- Overall, airline capacity between the Middle East and Europe, traditionally a market dominated by mainline carriers, has decreased. This summer, 4% less capacity is operating between the markets than in the summer of 2023. This partially reflects the wider industry challenges of supply chain issues, aircraft shortages, and market access.
However, the story is very different for the Middle East-based Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs), who represent a 22% capacity share in the summer of 2024 – unchanged from the summer of 2023.
Middle East Carriers in European Markets
The traditional routes from the Middle East to major European destinations like the UK, Germany, and France have historically been dominated by full-service carriers, partly due to distance considerations. For instance, the distance between the UK and UAE is approximately 3,400 nautical miles.
Although flydubai’s (FZ) 737 Max 8 and Wizz Air Abu Dhabi’s (5W) A321 neos technically have the range for these routes, they face stiff competition from established carriers, particularly Emirates (EK), which operates larger aircraft.
Despite this, there is some collaboration between flydubai and Emirates (EK), with flydubai acting as a feeder airline for Emirates on certain routes.
Emirates holds the majority of capacity between the Middle East and Europe this summer, accounting for 20% of seats. In comparison, flydubai operates 5%, resulting in a combined capacity share of a quarter of all seats.
The combined network map, featuring Emirates (EK – red) and flydubai (FZ – blue), illustrates flydubai’s preferred operating range and Emirates’ focus on larger markets with higher frequency services.
Most of Emirates’ European routes operate at least daily, if not more frequently, whereas flydubai typically operates with lower weekly frequencies to smaller markets.
Emirates will have an average daily frequency of 1.9 this summer on the Middle East to Europe routes, while flydubai’s average daily frequency will be slightly lower at 0.9.
Geography’s Role in Middle East-Europe LCCs
Geography plays a significant role, particularly in European markets closer to the Middle East, which tend to see a higher proportion of Low-Cost Carrier (LCC) capacity. Nearly half of the capacity between the UAE and Russia is operated by LCCs.
Similarly, LCCs have a notable presence on routes connecting the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel to Turkey, owing to their close proximity.
Despite being categorized as part of Europe in terms of air capacity due to its geographical position spanning Europe and Asia, there’s an unusual inclusion of a route between Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the analysis of capacity between the Middle East and Europe.
Contrary to this trend, Italy sees 22% of its capacity to and from the UAE provided by LCCs.
LCC Dominance in Middle East-Europe Routes
The top 10 Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) operating between the Middle East and Europe dominate this market, controlling 86% of LCC capacity for this summer. However, their share accounts for only 19% of the total capacity between these regions, even though LCCs serve 99 of the 236 country pairs operated.
Turkish Pegasus Airlines leads as the largest LCC, offering 1.53 million seats this summer, followed by flydubai with 1.28 million seats. While Pegasus has reduced its number of served routes by 7, flydubai has expanded its services by 5 routes. Meanwhile, Air Arabia has increased its capacity by 75,000 seats this summer, along with adding 2 new routes.
Ryanair reduced capacity by 174,000 seats, ending 7 routes and starting 6 new ones. Capacity within the Wizz Air Group also shifted: Wizz Air Hungary cut 0.9 million seats and 49 routes, while Wizz Air Malta added 0.4 million seats and 14 routes.
Similarly, Wizz Air Abu Dhabi increased capacity by nearly 0.1 million seats but with 3 fewer routes. The Wizz Air group’s overall network will grow by 0.6% this summer, but the Europe to Middle East market will see reduced capacity. Engine issues limit Wizz Air’s expansion, grounding up to 20% of its fleet for maintenance.
Top LCC Routes
Geography plays a significant role, along with a preference for routes with up to 4 hours of flying time to maximize aircraft utilization, in determining the top 10 routes operated by Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) from the Middle East to Europe. These routes include:
- Dubai to Moscow
- Capitals of Middle Eastern countries to Istanbul
- Dubai and Abu Dhabi to Baku
- Tel Aviv to Bucharest
Each route is expected to have over 100,000 seats available this summer, translating to approximately 3,300 weekly seats. However, not all of these routes are experiencing growth. For instance, capacity between Dubai and Moscow is down year-over-year, and ongoing situations in Israel have affected capacity between Tel Aviv, Istanbul, and Antalya.
Top 10 LCC Routes with Increased Capacity
Routes experiencing notable growth are those heading to Turkey, particularly Istanbul and Trabzon, and destinations in East and Central Europe. The Abu Dhabi to Baku route is witnessing a significant capacity increase of 44,000 seats, while Tehran to Istanbul is also experiencing a similar boost this summer.
New Routes Unveiled by LCCs
Introducing new routes by Middle Eastern Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) primarily targets untapped markets, notably in Italy, Greece, and East/Central European countries like Poland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and the Baltic countries. Notably, flydubai becomes the first UAE-based carrier to offer direct flights to Basel, enhancing connectivity to Dubai and beyond through its codeshare partner Emirates.
FLYNAS enters the scene with weekly flights to Berlin Brandenburg Airport and twice-weekly flights to Brussels from Jeddah this summer. Many of these new routes, especially those by Air Arabia, FLYNAS, and flydubai, enjoy a lack of competition, providing an advantageous position for LCCs with less pricing pressure.
In contrast, Wizz Air Malta faces competition from full-service carriers on routes to Vienna and Italy, where Austrian Airlines, Saudi Arabian Airlines, and Etihad Airways operate.
Ryanair also competes with Wizz Air Malta on routes from Tel Aviv to Bucharest and Vienna. Additionally, flydubai and Wizz Air Malta vie for passengers on the Dubai to Bucharest route.
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