Since January 2023, Airbus has secured numerous orders for the A350-1000 from new customers, including Air India (20), Delta Air Lines (20), EVA Air (18), Turkish Airlines (15), Air France KLM (11), Philippine Airlines (9), and Air Algerie (2).
On the other hand, Boeing only acquired one new customer, Air India, for 10 aircraft. However, Boeing did receive a significant follow-up order from Emirates.
Airbus A350-1000 vs Boeing 777X
Despite Airbus’s considerable investment in large twin-aisle aircraft like the A340-600 and A380, it struggled to pose a serious challenge to Boeing’s best-selling 777-300ER.
In response, Airbus introduced the A350-1000 and enhanced its range significantly to compete with the 777-300ER.
Comparing the A350-1000 with the passenger 777X now, if we tally all firm orders and in-service aircraft, the 777-8/-9 has a count of 398, while the A350-1000 stands at 272. This positions Boeing’s large aircraft with a 59% market share.
However, there are 10 passenger 777X customers (including 1 unidentified) and 20 A350-1000 customers (including 1 lessor). The HHI index (Herfindahl–Hirschman index) for the A350-1000 is 7%, whereas, for the passenger 777X, it’s 30%.
The 777X exhibits a significantly more concentrated order book. If we exclude the largest order from each, the customer base reduces to 248 for the A350-1000 and 193 for the 777-8/-9. Emirates accounts for 52% of the passenger 777X order book, while Qantas represents 13% of the A350-1000 order book.
Six airlines are customers for both the A350-1000 and the 777-8/-9: Qatar Airways (with 82 orders and in-service aircraft), Etihad Airways (45), Cathay Pacific (39), British Airways (36), Air India (30), and Lufthansa (30).
Which is Better for Airlines?
Which program fares better? While the 777X boasts a higher order count, it comes with a more concentrated customer base, mainly due to the limited market appeal of the larger 777-9 and the necessity for 777X customers to justify their orders with a critical mass of trunk routes.
In contrast, the threshold for ordering the A350-1000 tends to be lower, often appealing to existing A350-900 operators. A350-1000 customers typically have fewer trunk routes than those opting for the 777X.
In epsilonaviation assessment, the A350-1000 will likely find it easier to garner orders from new customers than the passenger 777X. We can see Korean Air as the sole solid prospective 777X customer. With its broader customer base, the A350-1000 can receive more follow-up orders.
The A350-1000’s potential to compete with the 777X largely hinges on the fleet decisions of major Chinese carriers such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, which collectively operate 71 large twin-aisle aircraft.
Airbus Leading the Battle
Another perspective to consider is the sales trend over the past years. In 2023, Airbus secured 95 orders compared to Boeing’s 10, marking a difference of 85 aircraft. If this trend persists, Toulouse could surpass Boeing by early 2025.
Additionally, the sales performance of the 777-X over the last five years has been sluggish, with figures indicating limited traction: 2018: 0, 2019: 18, 2020-1: 0, 2022: 12, and 2023: 10, totaling 40 units over five years, averaging 8 per year.
The 777X faces another immediate challenge in the form of significant certification delays. Delivery slots will not be accessible until 2029 unless Boeing implements an unparalleled ramp-up in twin-aisle production. In contrast, Delta’s order indicates that A350-1000 slots are available as early as 2026.
Airbus has undoubtedly pursued more assertive sales campaigns for the A350-1000. With the delay in 777X production (and uncertainty surrounding the latest 737-9 certification issues), Airbus has a prime opportunity to expand its market share. However, one potential obstacle is Rolls-Royce’s reluctance to adopt a similarly aggressive approach.
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