The global aviation industry is constantly evolving as airlines explore new opportunities to expand networks and meet the rising demand for air travel.
In this article, we will focus on the Asian aviation market, Benotra has identified several routes within Asia that have not yet been considered for direct services by airlines, despite demonstrating significant passenger volume in the past.
10 Unserved Routes in Asia
Using data from the BEONTRA Route Forecasting solution, here’s the compiled table showcasing the top 10 untapped Asian aviation markets based on passenger volume in the 12 months leading up to May 2023. We know it’s a little old but valuable insights.
Top 10 Untapped Asian Aviation Markets
| Rank | Route | 2019 PAX Volume | Latest PAX Volume | Recovery Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles – Ho Chi Minh City | 266k | 253k | 95% |
| 2 | London Heathrow – Manila | 280k | 218k | 78% |
| 3 | Los Angeles – Bangkok BKK | 233k | 154k | 66% |
| 4 | Delhi – Denpasar | 101k | 147k | 145% |
| 5 | Mumbai – Denpasar | 112k | 145k | 130% |
| 6 | London Heathrow – Denpasar | 167k | 138k | 82% |
| 7 | Medan – Denpasar | 130k | 117k | 91% |
| 8 | Paris CDG – Denpasar | 136k | 116k | 85% |
| 9 | Amsterdam – Manila | 232k | 115k | 49% |
| 10 | Kagoshima – Sapporo CTS | 521k | 115k | 22% |
At the top of the list is the route between Los Angeles and Ho Chi Minh City, which saw a remarkable passenger volume of 266,000 in 2019.
The second and third spots are occupied by the routes from London Heathrow to Manila and from Los Angeles to Bangkok, with 280,000 and 233,000 passengers, respectively.
Interestingly, several routes connect major cities in Asia, such as Delhi to Denpasar, Mumbai to Denpasar, and London Heathrow to Denpasar, indicating a significant demand for travel between these destinations. The route from Medan to Denpasar also stands out, with 130,000 passengers in 2019.
Untapped Potential
As the aviation industry looks to bounce back from the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, these untapped Asian markets present compelling opportunities for airlines to expand their networks and tap into new sources of revenue. By offering direct services on these routes, airlines can cater to the pent-up demand and potentially capture a larger share of the growing Asian travel market.
However, it’s important to note that the recovery rates for these markets vary, as indicated by the “Recovery Rate” column in the table. While some routes have experienced a robust recovery, with rates as high as 145% (Delhi to Denpasar), others have yet to reach pre-pandemic levels, such as the Amsterdam to Manila route at 49%.
Airlines must carefully assess the dynamics of each market and consider factors such as competition, economic conditions, and evolving passenger preferences when evaluating the feasibility of launching new routes.
Detailed Analysis
Los Angeles to Ho Chi Minh City leading the ranking:
The Los Angeles (LAX) to Ho Chi Minh City (SGN) route leads the rankings with 253,000 passengers (bi-directional) over the past year, achieving a 95% recovery compared to 2019 levels.
Despite its strong potential for direct service, the route presents challenges due to its significant flight distance of around 13,200 km.
If launched, it would rank among the longest flights operated globally. The question remains which airline will seize this opportunity and unlock the market’s potential.
Huge potential for direct services to Bali, Indonesia:
A notable highlight in the ranking is Denpasar (DPS) in Bali, Indonesia, appearing five times, underscoring the untapped potential for direct services to this sought-after destination.
Opportunities exist for direct flights from India’s key hubs, New Delhi (DEL) and Mumbai (BOM), as well as from Europe, with major metropolitan centers like London (Heathrow, LHR) and Paris (Charles de Gaulle, CDG).
Additionally, there is potential for domestic direct service from Medan (KNO). Notably, routes from New Delhi and Mumbai to Denpasar have already exceeded 2019 recovery levels, with impressive rates of 145% and 130%, respectively.
Lagging domestic routes in Asia:
A closer look at recovery rates for the top 10 untapped Asian routes reveals that domestic routes in Japan, Indonesia, and China are trailing, with recovery rates below 50%. In contrast, all international routes in the ranking have surpassed the 50% recovery mark.
For instance, the Kagoshima (KOJ) to Sapporo (CTS) route in Japan shows a recovery rate of just 22%, highlighting the slow return to pre-COVID connectivity for certain domestic city pairs in Japan.
Similarly, domestic routes in Indonesia and China, such as Guiyang (KWE) to Shenyang (SHE), also face sluggish demand and remain absent from top rankings. This suggests that, despite IATA’s projection of China’s domestic air travel returning to 2019 levels by summer 2023, some routes still struggle to rebound.
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